7-Year Economic Model Overview

The project model consolidates production forecasts, price decks, operating costs, capital expenditures, and Working Interest structure into a single integrated framework. It is designed to support institutional-grade due diligence and to provide a transparent view of the key value drivers.

  • Forecasts daily and monthly production from Mobil Fee 6 and Mobil Fee 4.
  • Applies price decks, basis assumptions, and midstream tariffs to derive netbacks.
  • Captures drilling, reactivation, facilities, and operating cost profiles.
  • Calculates cash flows, capital recovery, and post-payout distributions to WI owners.

The detailed model (including inputs, calculations, and scenario tabs) is made available to qualified investors via the Document Library / Data Room.

7-Year Base Case Snapshot
Modeled production 17,748,720 Mcf
7-year revenue $45,791,698
7-year gross profit $25,047,172
Investor gross profit (70% WI) $19,090,087
Capital program $8,000,000
Illustrative 7-year profile
Years 1–2 · Ramp-up & early cash flow Years 3–5 · Production plateau Years 6–7 · Managed decline

Figures are illustrative base-case outputs from the integrated 7-year model; actual results will vary and should be evaluated alongside the full workbook and risk disclosures.

Base Case Assumptions

Production and Reserves
  • Seven reservoirs on a 643-acre lease with engineering-confirmed gas in place.
  • Base case focuses on two reservoirs totaling 25,964,111 Mcf in place.
  • Modeled extraction of approximately 17,748,720 Mcf (≈68% of targeted reserves).
  • Production profiles differentiated between shallow (Mobil Fee 6) and deep (Mobil Fee 4) zones.

Production curves reflect engineering inputs and decline assumptions consistent with comparable South Texas assets.

Pricing, Costs, and Terms
  • Base gas price: $2.58/Mcf (before basis and tariffs).
  • Modeled 7-year revenue: $45,791,698.
  • Modeled 7-year gross profit: $25,047,172.
  • Investor gross profit (70% WI): $19,090,087 (pre-tax).
  • Working Interest terms and waterfall as summarized on the Investment Terms page.

Operating costs, tariffs, and taxes are benchmarked to regional norms and integrated into the netback and cash flow calculations.

All assumptions are subject to change and will be updated as contracts, field data, and market conditions evolve.

Scenario Snapshot — Base, Downside, and Upside

Base Case

Illustrative, not guaranteed.

  • Price deck anchored at $2.58/Mcf.
  • Production per engineering forecasts for both wells.
  • Standard operating cost and tariff assumptions.
  • Reflects the headline revenue and profit figures referenced on the site.
Downside Case

Stress test of project resilience.

  • Lower realized gas prices versus base case.
  • Slower ramp-up and/or higher downtime assumptions.
  • Incremental Opex and midstream cost pressure.
  • Tests robustness of capital recovery and payout timing.
Upside Case

Illustrative, not a forecast.

  • Improved price environment relative to base case.
  • Operational outperformance or incremental pay zones.
  • Efficiencies in operating costs and midstream terms.
  • Tests the potential uplift versus base case economics.

Scenario details (including quantitative outputs) are provided in the full model and supporting schedules available in the Data Room.

Key Sensitivity Drivers

Sensitivity analysis focuses on variables that have a disproportionate impact on economics and investor returns. These drivers are analyzed individually and in combination.

  • Commodity price: Henry Hub and regional basis differentials.
  • Production profile: IP rates, declines, uptime, and downtime assumptions.
  • Operating costs: Field Opex, compression, maintenance, and midstream charges.
  • Capital costs: Reactivation, workover, facilities, and contingency spend.
  • Timing: Delays in reactivation, facility commissioning, or ramp-up.

The model allows investors to test the impact of shocks to one or more variables and to calibrate expectations against their own price decks and risk views.

Practical Use Cases for Investors
  • Overlay your internal gas price deck on the base case volumes.
  • Test higher Opex and tariffs to assess downside protection.
  • Model slower or faster ramp-up of Mobil Fee 6 and Mobil Fee 4.
  • Benchmark returns against other energy investments in your portfolio.
Review Investment Terms View Risk Factors

All sensitivity outputs are illustrative; they are not predictions or guarantees of future performance.

Model Limitations and Risk Context

Any model is a simplification of reality. While the Safari Production Company, Inc. team has grounded assumptions in engineering data and regional benchmarks, actual outcomes will differ from modeled cases.

  • Commodity prices can move materially relative to the base deck.
  • Production performance may be higher or lower than forecast.
  • Costs, tariffs, and taxes may differ from current estimates.
  • Regulatory, ESG, and operational risks can impact timing and volumes.

Investors should not rely solely on any single case or figure. The formal risk disclosures, legal documentation, and independent advice are critical to any investment decision.

Related Pages and Materials

Together, these materials provide a more complete view of the economic, contractual, and risk landscape associated with the project.

Access the Full Model and Sensitivity Workbook

Qualified investors can request access to the full, working spreadsheet model, including base case, downside, and upside scenarios, as well as user-adjustable inputs for pricing, volumes, and costs.

  • Daily and monthly production and revenue schedules over 7 years.
  • Detailed cost breakdowns and midstream assumptions.
  • Scenario tabs illustrating the impact of key sensitivities.
  • Linkage to reserve, geological, and operational data.

Access is provided via the Data Room after completion of standard onboarding and non-disclosure arrangements.

Request Access
Request Data Room Access Contact Safari Production Company, Inc. View Executive Summary

Nothing on this page constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other advice. Any offering will be made only through definitive documentation to qualified investors.